Tensions are mounting at the Belarusian–Ukrainian border amid concerns by Ukrainian officials about a Russian spring offensive.
Despite his lack of a power base remotely comparable to that of the Nazarbaevs, Tokaev appears to have calculated that the association was toxic, amid widespread anger about unemployment, the cost of living and rampant corruption among an elite closely associated with Nazarbaev.
For all those reasons, American officials believe now is a moment when engaging with China is an imperative as it determines how to proceed amid Russia’s aggression.